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Just eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his performances were a symptom or a cause of Villa's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. As the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win , despite not winning any of their first six matches, are somehow just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?

This is a particularly tough question to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, even as the positive results have accumulated.

As per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have strung together ten consecutive victories, they look strangely fragile – however at the moment the margins are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with two precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened versus United.

The initial strike came from a superb shot, arced just inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed more shots and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
• The winger could transform into the performer he resembled during his peak.
• The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential player for the national team.

This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.