Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
